Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $859,740$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,026,005.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 151.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,026,005.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,577$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,456.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.5)}}\) (asimptote \(35,456.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $57,086$ on 2020-10-16

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $139,562$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,377.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.2)}}\) (asimptote \(142,377.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,439$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,907.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 147.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,907.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $27,227$ on 2020-10-16

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,200,300$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,414,068.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 138.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,414,068.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $153,214$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{155,512.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 119.1)}}\) (asimptote \(155,512.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $520,693$ on 2020-10-16

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $488,190$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{448,138.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 108.0)}}\) (asimptote \(448,138.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,529$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,606.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 107.8)}}\) (asimptote \(12,606.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,564$ on 2020-10-16

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $151,659$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{172,250.9}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 140.5)}}\) (asimptote \(172,250.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,357$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,366.2}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 215.8)}}\) (asimptote \(25,366.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,168$ on 2020-10-16

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $965,609$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,417,165.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 194.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,417,165.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $25,723$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128,989.1}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 253.7)}}\) (asimptote \(128,989.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $161,385$ on 2020-10-16

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $945,354$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{982,795.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 157.5)}}\) (asimptote \(982,795.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,616$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,849.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 144.0)}}\) (asimptote \(29,849.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $79,737$ on 2020-10-16

Suriname⮸

Population $586,632$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,113$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,164.8}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,164.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $109$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{120.6}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 143.7)}}\) (asimptote \(120.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-10-16

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Peru recovered 66%
Bolivia recovered 55%
Colombia recovered 53%
Venezuela recovered 45%
Guyana recovered 15%

Venezuela⮸

Population $28,435,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $85,758$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97,355.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 169.4)}}\) (asimptote \(97,355.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $725$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{868.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 160.8)}}\) (asimptote \(868.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,739$ on 2020-10-16

Guyana⮸

Population $786,552$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,672$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,868.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 212.9)}}\) (asimptote \(6,868.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $107$ on 2020-10-16

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $975$ on 2020-10-16