Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $859,740$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,026,005.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 151.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,026,005.7\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,577$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,456.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.5)}}\) (asimptote \(35,456.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $57,086$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $139,562$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,377.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.2)}}\) (asimptote \(142,377.8\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,439$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,907.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 147.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,907.8\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,227$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,200,300$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,414,068.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 138.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,414,068.1\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $153,214$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{155,512.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 119.1)}}\) (asimptote \(155,512.9\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $520,693$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $488,190$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{448,138.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 108.0)}}\) (asimptote \(448,138.5\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,529$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,606.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 107.8)}}\) (asimptote \(12,606.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,564$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $151,659$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{172,250.9}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 140.5)}}\) (asimptote \(172,250.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $12,357$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,366.2}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 215.8)}}\) (asimptote \(25,366.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,168$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $965,609$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,417,165.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 194.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,417,165.6\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $25,723$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128,989.1}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 253.7)}}\) (asimptote \(128,989.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $161,385$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $945,354$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{982,795.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 157.5)}}\) (asimptote \(982,795.1\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,616$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,849.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 144.0)}}\) (asimptote \(29,849.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $79,737$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,113$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,164.8}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,164.8\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $109$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{120.6}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 143.7)}}\) (asimptote \(120.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $83$ on 2020-10-16